In a January, 5th an opinion piece written by David Ignatius effectively endorses a plan to grant the Alawites less than a Dhimmi status in a Sharia state after the Islamists take over convincing them this isn’t a fight to the death. I value the Wapo more than the CNN, which just airs unprocessed ” information” from Syrian “activists” , but I think this naïveté is not the right answer. Reading this proposal it seems to me that it that this offer is trying to implement a divide and conquer strategy against the Alawites. Any Alawite will conclude  this offer as cynical and  untrustworthy, because more likely is a purge resulting in a bloodbath. Furthermore look at the history, for about a millennium the Alawites have faced severe prosecution and occasionally genocides with this kind of minority status. With all due respect, being a police state with all its dark sides, Syria was at least a secular state. If the West were serious about liberation it would demand guarantees about the future secular character of Syria.

Freedom Activists

Freedom Activists

Now they are offering the Alawites something that could be like a hardly tolerated minority – not unlike the Dhimmi status they had until the breakup of the Ottoman Empire during World War I. During the French administration Syria until its independence in 1946. a separate autonomous ‘Alawi region was given independence 1922.  After Syria 1961  separated from Egypt and the Syrian Arab Republic was reestablished. Alawites  gained again political weight for the first time in 1963 in Syria by the seizure of power by the Baath party.

Unless Alawites (and Christians as well as Kurds) fears about survival are addressed directly, Assad leaving power will be followed by a failed or Sharia state. This already creates a major risk for Syria’s future stability in years to come. The incident in the university in Aleppo yesterday is an indicator. More than 80 Syrians were killed by the Aleppo university blasts. Footage from the scene has emerged, The explosions reportedly struck an area between the University of Aleppo’s halls of residence and the architecture faculty on the first day of exams an state controlled area.  This security vacuum ruled by fractions and warlords in the Aleppo region helped Jabhat al-Nusra, which is allied with al-Qaeda: They use crude self-justice and social services, to win over the Syrian people like other Muslim extremist organizations, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Taliban in Afghanistan have successfully done to come to power.

Senior Lebanese security officials have confirmed that there has been a noticeable increase in jihadist elements associated with al-Qaeda within Lebanon. Essentially the whole Middle East might turn in a Sharia state. It is difficult to write about Syria without mentioning this is religious war but the West always has managed to do it. Taking in account that a failed state replacing Assad’s Syria certainly would be terrible for its people, America just goes in the proved wrong direction – the enemy of my enemy is my friend:

  • Iran looses its only ally
  • Iran loses its bridge to its proxy Hezbollah
  • Lebanon were freed from Syria
  •  Russia loses its influence in Syria, including a Mediterranean naval base

Nobody notices that this has always been a religious war, a war with al Qaeda, their Saudi sand, NATO against a sovereign government. They still are unable to address the question of what to do when the whole area catches fire and the West faces an united, powerful, radical Sunni controlled Arabia and Turkey the size of the Ottoman Empire.